UFC 150 - Henderson vs Edgar

Post #1

   So didn't quite get to post everything last week. Shogun looked ok, and Machida looked REALLY OK. Of course neither will beat Jon Jones. Overall I finished up 2.7 Units on the card. I also appreciate all you guys posting in the thread when it was up. Got me pretty pumped.

Taking a quick look through the card, and obviously the main event should be a good / great one. I am not sure who wins, but I do know Edgar went from being a -165 or so favorite in the 1st fight, to a +165 dog in the 2nd. Yes, Henderson won a close fight, but that kind of line move seems to big IMO. I have Henderson at closer to -130 vs Edgar at +100. But again, that's just me.

Obviously, most people expect this fight to go the distance and I totally understand why. However, I am not playing that angle. Not when there is so much to gain going against it. Last nigth I took the following:

Henderson in Rd 5 - 30/1 - 1 Unit

Henderson in Rd 4 - 20/1 - 1 Unit

Edgar in Rd 5 - 60/1 - 1 Unit

Edgar in Rd 4 - 45/1 - 1 Unit

Edgar Wins Inside The Distance - 9.5/1 - 1 Unit

Under 5 Full Rounds +220 Edgar vs Henderson - 2 Units

I mean LOOK AT THOSE PRICES! And remember, not only did Edgar almost get KO'd in his 1st fight with Maynard, but also his 2nd fight, before finishing Maynard in the 4th. um, yeah, I'll take a little bit of him doing that again at 45/1.

Elsewhere, I do like J-Mo's boy Cerrone, but at -300 vs Guillard (+250), I can't play that. If anything I'll take Guillard by KO, Cerrone by Submission and or the under when the line comes out. 

More & more lines continue to top every day. I like Cerrone -150 By Stoppage over Guillard. However, there is always the chance "The Young Assassain" KO's cerrone. And at +375 to do so, I am still working things over.

I lean to under 3 Full Rounds +140 in teh Holloway / Lawrence fight. I think this could be as good as the Guillard/Cerrone fight for action. I want to take Lawrence, but I think the kid is a prick. Not that, THAT should ever influence my decision making haha.

I think Shields gets the win in his return to 185 lbs. He faces a guy in Herman who just returned from having 2 years off with a bad knee injury and Shields himself is coming off 2 losses. And that helps give some value to Shields.

Shields +100 By Decision over Herman - 3 Units

Saturday Night Fight Card:

WIN:

Props:

Shields +100 By Decision over Herman - 3 Units

Under 5 Full Rounds +220 Edgar vs Henderson - 2 Units

Henderson in Rd 5 - 30/1 - 1 Unit

Henderson in Rd 4 - 20/1 - 1 Unit

Edgar in Rd 5 - 60/1 - 1 Unit

Edgar in Rd 4 - 45/1 - 1 Unit

Edgar Wins Inside The Distance - 9.5/1 - 1 Unit

Parlay: 

Will add more as the weekend progresses.  Not sure people here bet UFC or MMA, but I thought I would add what I'm playing.  I tend to "cap" sports that are once a week or so, as I don't have time  to feel comfortable posting daily sports.  BOL to all this week